A Year Of October 7 Attacks: From 'Satanyahu' to 'Greatenyahu'

One year after the harrowing October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, the repercussions of the Gaza War continue to reverberate throughout the region. This conflict has not only reshaped the political landscape but has also precipitated a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, impacting millions of civilians. Following the attack, a lot of players have joined the war, with political fortunes shifting for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As tensions rise and the possibility of a wider regional conflict looms, the stakes for both Netanyahu and the future of peace in West Asia are at an all-time high.

As we mark the anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, the ramifications of the ongoing Gaza War are increasingly profound, reshaping the political, security, and humanitarian landscape across the region. This year marks a critical period in Israeli politics, particularly for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is attempting to shift from a state of vulnerability to one of renewed support and authority.

Timeline of Key Events

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, using a combination of rocket fire and ground incursions that resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Israelis, predominantly civilians. The group also captured 251 hostages, a situation that would escalate into a protracted crisis. In response, Israel initiated a massive military campaign aimed at dismantling Hamas, marking a significant escalation in an already tense conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also vowed to destroy Hamas, which is blacklisted as a 'terrorist' organisation by the European Union and the United States.

By October 13, 2023, Israel had begun its extensive airstrikes on Gaza, targeting key Hamas infrastructure and further tightening its siege of the territory. At the same time, an evacuation order was issued for civilians in northern Gaza, leading to widespread displacement. The United Nations later estimated that nearly the entire population of 2.4 million Gazans would be affected, resulting in one of the largest humanitarian crises in recent history.

On October 27, 2023, Israel escalated its operations further by launching a ground invasion of Gaza. The operation aimed to neutralise Hamas' military capabilities but also led to widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

In November 2023, a temporary ceasefire was brokered, allowing for the exchange of hostages and providing a brief respite for civilians. However, fighting soon resumed, and reports indicated that by early 2024, nearly 42,000 Gazans had died in the conflict, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry.

Moreover on November 15, Israeli troops raided Gaza's biggest hospital, Al-Shifa, where Israel says Hamas has a command centre, an accusation the militants deny.

On February 29, 2024, a tragic incident highlighted the growing humanitarian toll when Israeli forces shot and killed 120 Palestinians who were rushing toward a convoy of food aid. This event drew international condemnation and underscored the dire circumstances faced by ordinary Gazans amid the conflict.

International aid efforts were complicated by ongoing military operations, with access often limited. While some humanitarian corridors were established during brief truces, the continuous nature of the conflict made sustained aid delivery nearly impossible.

From early March, several countries airdrop aid into Gaza. A first aid ship from Cyprus arrived on March 15.

As May 7, 2024, arrived, Israel launched a significant ground offensive in Rafah, targeting areas where many displaced Gazans had sought refuge. This operation not only escalated military action but also complicated efforts to deliver humanitarian aid, leaving millions in dire need of assistance.

By July 2024, Israel's military had successes, with the targeted killings of Hamas' armed wing chief, Mohammed Deif, Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top commander, Fuad Shukr. The targeted killings of high-ranking Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, contributed to a notable resurgence in Netanyahu's political popularity. His government's aggressive stance seemed to resonate with a public increasingly concerned about security amid ongoing threats.

In September 2024, the conflict further escalated as skirmishes along the Israel-Lebanon border became almost daily occurrences. Tensions mounted, leading to significant casualties on both sides and raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Israeli forces responded with increased military activity, including artillery strikes and air raids against Hezbollah positions.

Moreover on September 17 and 18, thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers and walkie-talkies exploded across Lebanon, killing at least 39 people and wounding almost 3,000. Although, Israel does not claim responsibility for these attacks.

Amid a mounting series of bombardments against Iran-backed Hezbollah, on September 27, an Israeli strike on its south Beirut stronghold killed the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah alongside an Iranian general in the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows that Nasrallah's death 'will not be in vain'.

Finally, on October 1, 2024, Iran retaliated for the assassinations of its leaders by launching a barrage of missiles at Israel. This marked a dangerous escalation in hostilities and raised the stakes for regional stability, with many analysts warning that the conflict could spiral into a multi-front war involving multiple state and non-state actors.

Netanyahu's Profile: From Vulnerability to Strength

In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack, Benjamin Netanyahu faced a profound political crisis. His long-held reputation as 'Mr. Security' was severely shaken as public trust in his leadership eroded. Criticism mounted over his government’s controversial judicial reforms, which had already ignited debate before the attack. Confidence in Netanyahu plummeted, with widespread backlash against his administration for its failure to act on intelligence warnings about Hamas' plans. Reports indicated that Israeli intelligence had identified potential threats but had not taken decisive measures to prevent the assault.

Polls showed a stark decline in support: at the time of the attack, Netanyahu's Likud party held 32 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. By late 2023, projections suggested a potential drop to just 17 seats if elections were held.

Weekly protests against Netanyahu have persisted, exposing deep divisions within his coalition. His partners frequently disagreed with his military strategies, leading thousands to take to the streets of Tel Aviv on weekends, with demonstrations spreading to other cities. As discontent with Netanyahu's government grew, protest demands evolved during the conflict in Gaza. Protesters, including relatives of captives taken by Hamas, have called for an immediate ceasefire, early elections, and Netanyahu’s resignation. These protests have intensified local and global pressure on Netanyahu, who insists that military action in Gaza is crucial for the captives' release rather than negotiating compromises.

Despite this turmoil, Netanyahu's fiery speeches defending Israel's right to self-defence have resonated with many. Experts suggest that aggressive military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon have rekindled a sense of moral strength among Israelis.

As 2024 progressed, Netanyahu’s political landscape began to shift. His administration adopted more assertive military strategies, including targeted assassinations of high-ranking Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, such as Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon. The recent killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, along with increased attacks on Iranian proxies, has fostered a renewed sense of agency among the Israeli public, who seek a robust response to security threats.

Recent polls reflect this shift: a survey from Israel's Channel 12 indicates that if elections were held today, Likud would secure 25 seats, making it the largest party in Israel. Netanyahu currently enjoys 38% support, bolstered by the recent inclusion of former political rival Gideon Saar in his coalition. Saar’s appointment to the Security Cabinet adds political credibility to Netanyahu's war management strategy, diminishing the power of coalition partners who previously threatened to destabilize his leadership.

According to Channel 12, Likud's resurgence comes at the expense of Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit party, which has dropped to 6 seats from 9 in the previous survey. Netanyahu is preferred as prime minister by 38% to 29% over Benny Gantz, and by 38% to 27% over Yair Lapid. The poll also reveals a rise in approval for Netanyahu’s handling of the war; today, 43% of respondents say he’s doing a good job, up from 35% a few weeks ago, while those who believe he’s doing a bad job have decreased from 60% to 53%.

With a multi-front war looming in West Asia, broader political support is essential for Netanyahu. His efforts to reclaim control of the narrative have not only bolstered his position but also revitalized his image as a security-focused leader. As the region remains tense, Netanyahu's political resilience will be critical in navigating these challenges.

Looking Ahead

As we reflect on the year since the initial attack, the future remains uncertain. The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with millions displaced and extensive destruction of infrastructure. Reports indicate severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical supplies, leading to a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions.

International scrutiny is intensifying, with calls for accountability growing louder amid accusations of war crimes against both Israel and Hamas. The international community, including various human rights organisations and United Nations bodies, have expressed concern over the treatment of civilians and the overall humanitarian toll of the conflict.

While Prime Minister Netanyahu aims to transform his image from 'Satanyahu'—a leader under siege—to 'Greatenyahu.' The unfolding events in Gaza and the broader region will significantly influence his legacy and Israel's trajectory in the coming years. The potential for a wider regional conflict looms large, underscoring the fragile state of peace in West Asia and the urgent need for a comprehensive resolution to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

As Israel navigates this tumultuous period, the leadership of Netanyahu will be tested against the backdrop of regional instability, public sentiment, and international pressure. The coming months will be pivotal in determining not only the fate of Netanyahu’s political career but also the broader prospects for peace and security in the region.