USD/CAD remains depressed near 1.3470-1.3465 area, weaker Oil prices to limit losses

• USD/CAD attracts fresh sellers on Wednesday amid a modest USD downtick.
• Dovish Fed expectations, along with a positive risk tone, weigh on the buck.
• Sliding Oil prices to undermine the Loonie and lend support ahead of Fed’s Powell.

The USD/CAD pair meets with some supply during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the overnight recovery gains from the 1.3420 region, or its lowest level since March 8. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3470-1.3465 region, down over 0.10% for the day amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, though some follow-through selling around Crude Oil prices could help limit deeper losses.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stalls the overnight goodish rebound from the vicinity of the YTD low amid bets for another 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone – as depicted by a fresh leg up in the equity markets – further undermines the safe-haven buck and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. 

Meanwhile, doubts about sustained fuel demand growth in China – the world's top oil importer – and easing worries over supply disruptions in Libya drag Crude Oil prices further away from a three-week high touched on Tuesday. Despite a slew of stimulus measures announced this week, investors remain uncertain about China's economic recovery. This, along with signs of the return of Libyan oil to the market, further seems to weigh on the black liquid. 

This, in turn, could undermine demand for the commodity-linked Loonie and lend some support to the USD/CAD pair. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines and refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US economic data will drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

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